Climate risk assessments have constantly said that as of now, up to 6.5 feet (2 meters) of sea level rise will occur in the coming 100 years, even if we stop emitting greenhouse gasses now, meaning if we keep emissions below 1.5 C. And at present, the highest probability is that we can not keep emissions below that 1.5 C increase. Also, at our current 1.2 C increase, we are already assured of melting ice, rising seas, and massive inland migrations.
In the May 20th edition of The Guardian, we read that sea level rise will cause ‘catastrophic inland migration’, and
“Rising oceans will force millions away from coasts even if global temperature rise remains below 1.5C, analysis finds.”
The article is very worth reading in full, but here’s a pull quote:
Today, about 230 million people live within 1 metre above current sea level, and 1 billion live within 10 metres above sea level. Even just 20cm of sea level rise by 2050 would lead to global flood damages of at least $1tn a year for the world’s 136 largest coastal cities and huge impacts on people’s lives and livelihoods.
However, the scientists emphasised that every fraction of a degree of global heating avoided by climate action still matters, because it slows sea level rise and gives more time to prepare, reducing human suffering.
This does not begin to address the changes to air temperatures, salt water intrusion, extinction or marginalization of species and ecosystems that support life on earth.
Reuters reports that NASA is forecasting an above-normal hurricane season in 2025, producing three to five major hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 111 miles (179 km) per hour.
The Atlantic hurricane season, which begins on June 1, is forecast to produce 13 to 19 named tropical storms with winds of at least 39 mph, according to the U.S. National Weather Service. Of those storms, six to 10 are forecast to become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher.
Meanwhile, the United States Senate has shown its support for sustaining life on earth by blocking California’s ban on gas-powered vehicles. Per today’s New York Times:
The Senate on Thursday blocked California’s landmark plan to phase out the sale of new gasoline-powered vehicles, setting up a legal battle that could shape the electric car market in the United States.
The 51-44 vote was a victory for the oil and gas industry and for Republicans who muscled through the vote by deploying an unusual legislative tactic that Democrats denounced as a “nuclear” option that would affect the way the Senate operates way beyond climate policy.
The only Democrat to vote to block the California policy was Senator Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, whose state is the center of the U.S. auto industry. Michigan’s other Democratic senator, Gary Peters, voted with his party. He is not seeking re-election.
Five other senators — three Republicans and two Democrats — did not vote.
The repeal deals a blow to California’s ambition of accelerating the transition to electric vehicles. But the consequences will ripple across the country. That’s because 11 other states intended to follow California’s plan and stop selling new gas-powered cars by 2035. Together, they account for about 40 percent of the U.S. auto market.
The resolution, which had already been approved by the House, now goes to President Trump’s desk. Mr. Trump, who opposes clean energy and has taken particular umbrage at California’s efforts to reduce the use of fossil fuels, is expected to sign it into law.
Other nations, other norms: In Australia, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese won in 2022 by promising to “end the climate wars.” According to Politico
Key among his tactics is a relentless focus on positive economic messaging — namely, that Australia has hitched its economic engine to renewable energy. At the same time, he’s pursued a decidedly all-of-the-above energy policy that envisions continued exports of coal and natural gas from the country’s ample deposits. (Compare that to the indifference of national Democrats in the U.S. when party leaders in natural gas-rich states protested against former President Joe Biden’s moratorium on export permits.)
The campaign marked a new chapter in selling voters on not just the prospect of climate action, but the specific policies needed to get there. “The 2022 election, when we came to office, was a climate win,” Bowen said. “The 2025 election was an energy win.”
It also helped that Albanese and his party got a big assist from Donald Trump. The election was a toss-up until late February, when Trump and his trade wars began dragging down MAGA-embracing Liberal leader Peter Dutton in the polls.
And then there’s the JOINT STATEMENT BETWEEN THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA AND THE FRENCH REPUBLIC ON CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE OCCASION OF THE TENTH ANNIVERSARY OF THE PARIS AGREEMENT
In the run-up to the third United Nations Ocean Conference in Nice and on the occasion of the tenth anniversary of the adoption of the Paris Agreement, the two sides commit to:
1. Implementing the Paris Agreement in a comprehensive, complete and effective manner, informed by the outcome of the first global stocktake. The two sides will enhance cooperation on energy efficiency and decarbonization in the areas of energy, industry, transportation and buildings, including making continuous efforts to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, and actively pushing forward green and low-carbon socio-economic transformation.
2. Providing appropriate solutions to major challenges of the era within multilateral framework. The regression of certain countries from scientific consensus and their withdrawal from multilateral institutions will only strengthen our determination and actions. The two sides reaffirm their commitment to take and accelerate collective actions, on the basis of the best available science, taking into account different national circumstances.
3. Enhancing coordination in the run-up to the thirtieth session of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC (COP 30), in support for Brazilian presidency to deliver the decisive conference a full success, strengthening coordinated efforts and enhanced communication about their respective upcoming new ambitious NDCs which will cover all economic areas and greenhouse gases, and be aligned with the Paris Agreement goals, while reaffirming the nationally determined nature of NDCs, and recalling Articles 2, 3 and 4 of the Paris Agreement.
4. Supporting climate actions. opportunities for global economy in the fields of investment, financing, competitiveness, innovation, employment and economic growth, as well as benefiting people in improving living standards and health conditions, facilitating decent work, sustainable food systems and affordable energy.
5. Advancing the implementation of the decision on new collective quantified goal on climate finance (NCQG) adopted at COP29.
6. Protecting biodiversity and ecosystems. Recognizing the synergy between climate crisis and biodiversity loss, the two sides will work together to implement the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework and protect ecosystems. The two sides reaffirm their commitment at COP26 to halt and reverse deforestation and land degradation by 2030. The two sides are committed to promote Nature-Based Solutions.
7. Strengthening global marine conservation in accordance with the joint statement of China and France on strengthening biodiversity and ocean cooperation: from Kunming-Montreal to Nice. China will support France in holding a successful United Nations Ocean Conference (June 9-13 2025, Nice, France) in the most ambitious manner. The two sides are working toward the early entry into force of the Agreement under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea on the Conservation and Sustainable Use of Marine Biological Diversity of Areas beyond National Jurisdiction (BBNJ Agreement).
You want more than fine words? Of course we do. Here we go: Clean-energy sectors drove a quarter of China’s gross domestic product growth in 2024 and have overtaken real-estate sales in value.
So what can we individuals do? This outstanding paper says “We found that engaging in future thinking—especially self- and socially focused future thinking—effectively motivated climate action.”
For example, do you live on a coast? You know what to do. .