Let's Not Get Cocky

Bread and Butter Are Moral Issues

The most important aspect of President Biden's speech is that if you want to beat Trump, you need to show better policies, programs that will improve people's lives. This is not about moral victories or culture wars. It is what people vote on. This is early March. The Unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, above the 3.7% consensus. That 3.9% matches the 2-year high. On Friday morning, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US economy added 275K jobs in the month of February. That figure was well above the 200K that was previously estimated.

The Federal Reserve has pushed the schedule for the first cut to interest rates to June. If we compare the increase in unemployment to the month’s Average Hourly Earnings data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, those earning only rose 0.1% from January. That rate is well below the 0.3% consensus and January rate of 0.5%.

So let's not get cocky.