Many Streams Run Together - A Confluence of Calamities

But Not Necessarily Collapse

The following are not forecasts or predictions. They are simply short descriptions of current events and what might come of each. When observed as simultaneous interferences with the healthy workings of the planet, of global health, of global finance and politics, and the effects of the current conditions of the United States, they present a compound and complex situation. According to University of Connectictut Emeritus History Professor Peter Turchin, this confluence of forces has historically led to societal crises, from which a few societies have recovered, but the majority have collapsed. He has studied societies around the world, from 10,000 years ago to the present. That is a lot of historical data.

“Societies are systems and they tend to change in a somewhat predictable way,” Turchin said. “We are on the verge of a state breakdown where the center loses hold of society.”

In the US, he points out, there are two political chief executives, each commanding his own elite cadre, with nothing yet being done at a deep structural level to improve circumstances. “We’ve seen growing immiseration for 30 to 40 years: rising levels of state debt, declining median wages and declining life expectancies. But the most important aspect is elite overproduction” – by which he means that not just capital owners but high professionals – lawyers, media professionals and entertainment figures – have become insulated from wider society. It is not just the 1% who are in this privileged sector, but the 5% or 10% or even 20% – the so-called “dream hoarders” – they vie for a fixed number of positions and to translate wealth into political position.

“The elites had a great run for a while but their numbers become too great. The situation becomes so extreme they start undermining social norms and [there is] a breakdown of institutions. Who gets ahead is no longer the most capable, but [the one] who is willing to play dirtier.”

Turchin’s analysis applies to Donald Trump, who appealed to a radical faction of the elite and to the disaffected voters to further his political ambition.

The main difference between the past 10,000 years studied by Professor Turchin and today is the climate crisis. It is more determinative of our fates than any other factor. And the fate of the planet can’t be separated from the inequality of global, corporate capitalist nations.

In the paper Human and nature dynamics (HANDY): Modeling inequality and use of resources in the collapse or sustainability of societies, Morresharrei et al conclude that a sustainable steady state is shown to be possible in different types of societies, but over-exploitation of either Labor or Nature results in a societal collapse. Collapse can be avoided, and population can reach a steady state at maximum carrying capacity if the rate of depletion of nature is reduced to a sustainable level and if resources are distributed equitably.

At present, we’re overexploiting both Labor and Nature, ignoring sustainabillity and increasing inequality.

Global Health Issues

At present, the planet is facing outbreaks of Avian flu H5N1.

If and when bird flu — already widespread in cattle, cats and other mammals — gains the ability to transmit between people, the best Americans can hope for is to “control the speed of the train” with vaccines, masks and treatment, according to UCSF Professor of Medicine Dr. Peter Chin-Hong .

So the recent silencing of communications from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention by the Trump administration is likely to increase mortality. This is reminiscent of the Trump I response to Covid.

Global Finance and Politics

The market for US Treasury securities is the largest and most liquid market for government securities in the world. The market is used to finance the US Government and plays a central role in the implementation of the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve System. US Treasury securities also act as a key benchmark for both US domestic private sector financing and international markets. So, changes in liquidity in this market can have tremor to earthquake consequences for global financial markets.

This week there will be new auctions of 10- and 30-year Treasuries as indicators of market demand (as well as Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday).

The Labor Department will also release the consumer price index reading on Wednesday. The data is likely to reinforce the recent outlook: It’s expected to show that prices rose at a 2.9% pace in January from a year earlier, the same rate as the month before, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Inflation rising and front-loading the tariffs undercut Trump's promise of rapid growth. And this week will be --informative.

Feb. 10: New York Fed 1-Yr inflation expectations

Feb. 11: NFIB small business optimism

Feb. 12: MBA mortgage applications; consumer price index, annual revisions for CPI; real average weekly and hourly earnings

Feb. 13: Producer price index; annual revisions for PPI; initial jobless claims;

Feb. 14: Retail sales; import and export price index; industrial production; capacity utilization; manufacturing production; business inventories

Also this week, we are seeing nations denounce Trump’s tariffs; global trade wars are probable.

So: it's getting disruptive, and is going to cause global financial pain.

Current Conditions in the United States

According to the National Literacy Institute, National Literacy Institute, 21% of adults in the United States have low literacy skills. This means that they have difficulty with tasks like comparing and contrasting information, paraphrasing, or making low-level inferences.

The 21% of adults with low literacy skills translates to about 43 million adults.

Other literacy statistics in the United States include:

54% of adults have a literacy below 6th grade level.

45 million adults read below a 5th grade level.

44% of adults do not read a book in a year.

Internationally, the United States ranks 36^th in literacy.

These facts show us two problems. One, Americans are behind China and other nations in being economically competitive in the global market. And two, about 45 millions Americans , those who read below the 5^th grade level, probably played a decisive role in determining who became the president of the United States. The solution to both problems is to foster more and better public education.

However, the current administration is currently targeting the Department of Education for cuts in funding.

Therefore, we are not likely to see more and better public education. Instead, if these moves stand, we are likely to see less and worse public education.

“Complex human societies need elites – rulers, administrators, thought leaders – to function well,” Professor Turchin writes. “We don’t want to get rid of them; the trick is to constrain them to act for the benefit of all.”

At present, transnational elites show no clear interest in acting for the benefit of all. We know what happens to those who do not remember history.